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Mose Consulting embarked on Community Social Initiative (CSI) programme

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Mose Consulting embarked on Community Social Initiative (CSI) programme as part of its broader company values. The CSI programme was facilitated in the North West Province under the auspice of Mahikeng Local Municipality.

The Company prepared food packages which were distributed to 30 families in various wards.

Our Managing Director, Speaker of Council, Ward Councillors and Local Pastors led the programme and engaged with various families throughout the day.

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Dealing with complicated and complex risks

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The advent of COVID-19 in South Africa has changed the landscape of risks irrevocably. It has brought home the importance of managing COVID-19 as a complex problem.

From a risk perspective, it must shift focus onto a system of complicated or complex risks and opportunities. In looking once again at the 2020 IRMSA Risk Report it is clear that there is guidance on how to approach complicated and complex risks, but is it enough?

Does the narrative “Navigating Complexity: The Frontier of Risk Management” tell us enough?

The comparison between Complicated Systems and Complex Systems is detailed and powerful in helping to understand what is being dealt with when analysing problems.

Given that a risk is in fact a problem that has yet to materialise, it can be usefully applied when adding one extra dimension.

That is that in the case of a complicated risk, it must still be properly defined to avoid the potential to solve it incorrectly.

This also applies to complex risks except that the “multiple non-linearly connected parts” or at least one of them must be subjected to an adequate definition if the system and hence the risk is to be positively influenced.

The concept of defining the complicated risk is within the grasp of all of us. Having said that the risk report brings home the importance of understanding systems theory as a key tool in hands of a modern day risk practitioner or manager.

But understanding systems theory alone, which is important, this does not help with addressing complex risks, and hence the relevance of the “Cynefin Sensemaking Framework”.

Does the “Cynefin Sensemaking Framework” as described therein do to help the risk practitioner or risk manager in the important role that they must play now?

It does in terms of differentiating a complex risk, and in helps in what to See, Attend To and Act Upon when faced with one.
But does it help with how to address a complex risk in a way that will result in improved management of it?

It is suggested two concepts need to be added to enable effective management.

Firstly at least one or more of the “multiple linearly connected parts” of the system exposed to the risk need to be sufficiently defined to the extent that they can be positively influenced towards a better outcome.

Secondly, once there is improved definition, an approach that will deliver an improved outcome needs to be selected and applied. In 1994 R. L. Ackoff in a paper on Systems Thinking and Thinking Systems suggested the following way of treating messy (or complex) problems. Absolution: To ignore the problem or mess; to hope that it will take care of itself or go away. Resolution: To do something that yield an outcome that’s good enough, that satisfices. Solution: To do something that yields or comes close enough to the best possible outcome, that optimises. Dissolution: To redesign either the entity that has the problem or mess, or its environment, in such a way as to eliminate the problem or mess and enable the system involved to better in the future than the best it can do today, in a word to idealize.Consider what the Government of South Africa has done to respond initially to the effect of COVID-19 on the complex systems that make up our society.

They have defined that physical contact is one facet of the complex problem, and have effected a temporary change to the environment. In other words they have applied the lockdown regulations and in doing so influenced but not solved the problem.

In conclusion, it is important for risk practitioners and risk managers to at least understand the basics of Systems Theory, something that IRMSA can include in its training programmes.

Also, to address risks we need to do a very basic thing and that is to properly define the complicated risk or that part of the complex system that is to be treated.

Finally, in the case of a complex risk, chose the approach towards treating it that fits the organisation to which it is exposed and possibly use one of the ways stipulated by Ackoff.Authored by: Dr. Les Carlo, IRMSA Risk Intelligence Committee Advisor

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Message from IRMSA President – June 2020

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Dear IRMSA Members

I am sure that like me, many of you feel drained and exhausted by the emotional and physical toll Covid- 19 has taken. I recently read an article comparing the 1917 flu with our current pandemic, the article highlighted how unlike the 1917 pandemic, Covid-19 has accelerated and compressed certain technological and societal shifts. Its legacy will leave a scar on all, with many being directly impacted through the loss of loved ones and or the loss of incomes. Highlighting not only how vulnerable or dependent we had become on the previous status quo but also the need for reflection on the values  we choose to live by.

Covid has reinforced the understanding that everyone’s path and experience is different.  As we physically distance ourselves in order to continue working together, more empathy is required to ensure that we all can co-exist within a new dynamic. I remember a time in business where managers would frequently tell employees to leave their personal issues at the office door and that we shouldn’t let our personal lives cloud our professional ones. Of course, that time  has passed but never before has our work life so encroached on our family or personal relationships, and in so doing highlighted the need to understand our staff and colleagues motivation and morale.

One of the biggest challenges for me in lockdown was finding my hard borders – living in an almost endless limbo of video conferences, WhatsApp’s and meetings. As lockdown, with all its peculiarities, has eased we have had to  adapt professional and family routines on an ongoing basis.

Risk management is the impact of uncertainty on our objectives, I love that definition, it reminds me that uncertainty is a part of life. And like all of the messiness and wonder that being alive brings, we can choose how we respond to the uncertainty we face. I always smile when my non-risk colleagues incorrectly assume that risk managers are focused on being risk averse, when the opposite is true. No personal or societal progress is ever made by being risk averse – it’s about taking informed risks, risks within  yourselves and  society’s appetite. And we need to embrace that – we need to re-embrace the confidence in taking the right risks.

I heard a phrase referencing that the economy of the future is one “built on fear” and whilst that might be true, what is important is how we use the fear to fuel action as opposed to inertia. Like many I have followed the news reports, the personal blogs and anecdotes and it is rightly so that many  are fearful. Covid-19 is scary, and its ability to act like Russian roulette is particularly frightening. But we need to decide how we reset our lives and do so in a risk responsible way so that we don’t miss out on the opportunities this mid/post Covid world has to offer.

I miss some of the options and freedoms we had prior this pandemic, I miss the personal interaction that a  smile or hug can bring. But more importantly, the casual hello and chance encounter which triggers thoughts and actions, which have been key to the role of the risk manager – within Covid we will need to adapt.

I know that all of us can get through this.  Like all things it too shall pass but we will have the scars, and as an often quoted saying goes “a scar is just a reminder that you were stronger than whatever tried to hurt you”.

The economy will be different, our businesses will be forever changed but our spirit to embrace  new challenges and contexts should remain.

Yours in Risk

Berenice Francis
IRMSA President

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The African Risk Management Journey

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Africa is known for its beautiful natural landscapes, abundant resources and diverse people and cultures – but it is also known for poverty, corruption, inadequate infrastructure and many other challenges. As with everything in life, one’s perspective determines which facet of the continent one sees. One can view only the risks – or one can chose a more positive or balanced outlook and identify the opportunities. After all, it is not just Africa faced with challenges at this time – the entire world is having to cope with tremendous uncertainty.

For a very long time, interested parties have had Africa in their sights, waiting for the right moment to invest in a continent that has so much potential. The 2020s have been flagged as the decade of Africa’s economic transformation, coronavirus pandemic notwithstanding. The continent’s annual GDP growth rate for the past 20 years has been around 4.6%, and African economies were expected to outperform global growth this year, before the pandemic struck.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the fastest-growing African countries are South Sudan (8.2%), Rwanda (8.1%), Ivory Coast (7.3%), Ethiopia (7.2%) and Senegal (6.8%). Brookings Institution’s annual Foresight Africa report predicts that Senegal, Rwanda, Niger, Uganda and Mozambique will demonstrate the most rapid growth during the next five years.

Effective risk management will play a critical role in the rise and continued development of the continent. Risk management is an enabling tool that informs decision-making; it could influence decisions around the use and prioritisation of valuable resources, including skills and funding. Although many African companies have implemented risk management practices as part of their due diligence for funding and investment purposes or due to international ownership, there is much work to be done to integrate and develop risk management as part of good corporate governance. Risk management should be viewed as a strategic enabler; through increasing awareness and training, it may be possible to empower many African companies in this space.

The newly established Institute of Risk Management South Africa (IRMSA) Regional Africa Committee is passionate about making an impact on the continent and is committed to supporting it with risk management guidance, insights, training, development, shared experiences and thought leadership. IRMSA recently launched its digital strategy in response to Covid-19, making it possible for the entire continent to access all available training and virtual events. This initiative will enable access to information and will encourage individuals and companies across Africa to improve or develop their risk management capabilities.

Thanks to nimble thinking and meticulous planning, this wealth of online resources has been made available to companies across the continent. In the wise words of one of the most inspirational African leaders of all time, Nelson Mandela, “It always seems impossible until it’s done.”

Authored by: Junita van der Colff, Managing Director, Protean Business Solutions
Chairperson, IRMSA Africa Sub-Committee

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